PREDICTIONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

This page is just beginning. There will be lots more 21st century predictions.

  1. The world will become more prosperous. By the end of the century, the standard of living of almost all the world's population will be decent by the standards of the beginning of the 21st century. Thus infant mortality will be below 10 per thousand in all countries, and life expectancy will be at least in the 70s in almost all countries.
  2. I make no predictions about relative standards of living. There will still be rich and poor, but how much difference it will make in people's lives will depend on what technology develops. For example, a 50 year life extension costing $2 million would create considerable inequality and probably would create considerable tension between the haves and the have nots. Today not even Bill Gates could buy a 20 year extension in his expected life. If life extension technology doesn't develop or proves cheap, then this source of inequality won't happen.
  3. Quite apart from increases in world population, prosperity will cause large increases in the world public. For example, popular movies will have many times larger audiences. This will accentuate the star system, whereby a few people have a worldwide public for whatever they do and achieve enormous incomes. Here's a discussion of the star phenomenon.
  4. Most likely biological and medical discoveries will allow a substantial increas in lifespan, probably at reasonable cost.
  5. World population will stabilize. See my population page for further information and UN projections.
  6. We will still have individual transportation in the year 2100. The parking problem will have been solved by building parking garages under the streets. There is an excellent chance that our individual cars (or airplanes) will be computer driven, allowing, the very young, the very old, and the very drunk to travel safely.

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Send comments to jmc@cs.stanford.edu. I sometimes make changes suggested in them. - John McCarthy

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