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- If people keep on eating and multiplying and
farmers keep on tilling and harvesting as today,
the imperative of food will take another tenth of
the land, much from Nature. So farmers work at
the hub of sparing land for Nature.
- Calories and protein from present cropland would
give a vegetarian diet
to ten billion. A diet requiring
food and feed totaling 10,000 calories for ten
billion, however, obviously would exceed the capability
of present agriculture on present cropland.
- The global totals of sun
on land,
in the air,
fertilizer,
and even water
could produce far more
food than ten billion need.
- By eating different species of crop and more or less
vegetarian diets people can change the number
who can be fed from a plot. And large numbers of
people do change diets.
- Encouraged by incentives, farmers use new technologies
to raise more crop per plot and more meat
and milk per crop, keeping food prices down despite
rising population. Differences in yields
among nations and between average and master
farmers continue showing that yields can be
raised more.
- Foreseeing the future demands seeing through
fluctuations
in crop production.
- For each ton of production, growing more food per
plot lessens the fallout,
for instance, of silt and
pesticides, into the surroundings. If several limiting
factors are improved together, even adding
water and fertilizer can diminish fallout.
- Although the uneven distribution of water among
regions and its capricious variation among seasons
plague farming, opportunities to raise more crop
with the same volume of water kindle hope.
- In Europe
and the United States, rising income,
improving technology,
and leveling populations--which
all nations aspire to--elicit forecasts of
shrinking cropland.
- So by harvesting more per plot, farmers can help
ten billion spare some land that unchanging yields
would require to feed them. Glimmers can be seen
even of changing diets,
never-ending research,
encouraging incentives,
and smart farmers feeding
ten billion at affordable prices while sparing
some of today's cropland for Nature.
Next: Appendix A: Agricultural Production
Up: How Much Land Can
Previous: Breakthroughs
Yasuko Kitajima
Thu Jun 19 16:20:56 PDT 1997