How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare for Nature?

How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare for Nature?

[I (John McCarthy) have put the report on-line as part of my web site on the Sustainability of Progress. The first link tells you who I am, and the second how I see the Waggoner report contributing to the public debate about the sustainability of material progress.]

This report was published in cooperation with the Program for the Human Environment, The Rockefeller University, New York, New York.

Council for Agricultural Science and Technology

Printed in the United States of America

Cover design by Lynn Ekblad, Different Angles, Ames, Iowa

Front cover photographs: Native prairie and spring wheat (Triticam aestivum) photographs by Carl Kurtz, St. Anthony, Iowa. Tall prairie blazing-stars (Liatris pycnostachya), rattle-snake masters (Eryngium yaccifolium), black-eyed susans (Rudbeckja hirta), and western yarrow (Achillia millifolium) on the Marietta Sand Prairie, Marshall County, Central Iowa. Butterfly photograph in Loess Hills Wildlife Area, Monona County, Iowa by Tom Rosburg. A prairie skipper, the Hobomok skipper (Poanes hobomok), accents the question, How much land can ten billion people spare for Nature?

Back cover photograph by Brian Vikander, Bozeman, Montana. Djenne, Mali founded in 1250, was the sister in trade to Tombouctou and is said to be the oldest city in West Africa. Market day brings the Bambara peasants, Dioula traders, Dogons, and Peuls together for what is the most colorful market in all Africa.

ISSN 0194-4088

98 97 96 95 94 4 3 2 1

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

How much land can ten billion people spare for nature?
p. cm. - (Task force report, ISSN 0194-4088 : no. 121)
``February 1994."
Includes bibliographical references.
Agriculture. 2. Land use, Rural. 3. Food supply. 4. Agricultural productivity. 5. Population. I. Council for Agricultural Science and Technology. II. Title: How much land can 10 billion people spare for nature? III. Series: Task force report (Council for Agricultural Science and Technology) no. 121.

S439.H68 1994

338.1'6-dc20 94-2703

CIP

Task Force Report

No. 121 February 1994

Council for Agricultural Science and Technology

Author

Paul E. Waggoner, paul.waggoner@po.state.ct.us, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven

Reviewers

Dennis T. Avery, Hudson Institute, Indianapolis, Indiana

Roland C. Clement, formerly an officer of National Audubon Society, North Branford, Connecticut

Vernon W. Ruttan, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul

 
• Contents
• Foreword
• Preface
• Abbreviations
• Interpretative Summary
• Introduction
• Ten Billion People?
• Spare Land for Nature?
• How Do Five Billion People Use Land Today?
  • The inventory
  • How much land does humanity use for buildings, transport, and so forth, preventing its use for crops?
• The World's Present Supply of Calories and Protein, or Making Do with the Present Food
  • Food reaching consumers from 1988-1990
  • Grains and oilseeds produced during 1991
  • All agricultural production during 1990
  • Wants rather than needs in 2050 A.D.
  • Changing diet
  • So what?
• Do Global, Physical Limits Hem in Farming?
  • Sun, Warmth, and land to stand on
  • Carbon dioxide
  • Water
  • Fertilizer
• Can Smarter Farming Spare Land by Getting More Food from Each Plot?
  • Farmers do progress
  • Smart farmers raise yields per plot
  • A ceiling on what smart farmers can raise on a plot
  • Smart farmers get more milk and meat from fee
  • Changing species
• But, in the End, Will Farmers Spare Land for Nature?
  • Seeing through misleading fluctuations
  • Have farmers used up all the technology?
  • Will farmers try?
  • How expensive must food become?
  • How much will fallout tarnish saving land or nature?
• Does Water Cloud the Sanguine Vision?
  • Irrigation matters
  • Reasons to worry
  • Reasons to hope
  • The balance of worry and hope
• Some Straws in the Wind
  • The United States
  • Europe
  • Developing countries
  • In brief
• A Scenario for Success
• Surprises
  • Fewer than ten billion people
  • Climate change
  • New pests
  • Breakthroughs
• In the End
• Appendix A: Agricultural Production During 1990
• Appendix B: Yardstick of Agricultural Progress
• References
• Index
• About this document ...